The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, April 8, 2016

Friday -- Risk On, Yen, The Facebook, The Global Fed

S&P E-mini Futures:
Straight up overnight.

News:
Why is NY Fed president Dudley speaking in Bridgeport, CT this morning? Bridgeport used to be where people went to buy crack. Hopefully that's changed.

The Fed's message hasn't. He wants a "cautious, gradual approach" to raising interest rates.

But what may be changing at the Fed is this: it sounds as if it's primping for global ambitions. Such as central financial regulator to the world.

Last night globalist poster boy Fareed Zakaria moderated a discussion at International House (get it?) with three former Federal Reserve presidents (Volker, Greenspan, and Bernanke) along with Yellen. The amount of global philosophy and concern made it clear, to me at least, especially given recent comments by IMF president Lagarde of a similar nature, that the two institutions are taking on a far more global regulatory focus. Just speculation at this point, but something to watch for over the coming months to see if it continues.

Kind of like Mark Zuckerberg on the cover of The Economist.


With the Facebook at highs with declining volume, some rough sledding is at least possible from a social mood standpoint.

Elsewhere, for the second day in a row, Zero Hedge has opined that the recent debt moratorium passed by Puerto Rico Governor Padilla concerning the GDB (government development bank) signals currency controls. Zzzzzz. Zero Hedge should stick to aggregating data.

Incidentally the far larger problem is not the $72 billion in debt that PR can't pay, but the island's vastly under-funded pensions which could end up totaling far more. That's where the real humanitarian tragedy lies:


In global markets, Asia was mixed last night, but Europe is majorly green today.

FX:
Risk On today? It's the yen™

USDJPY got as low as 107.655 before reversing in a possible 5-wave impulse cresting over 109. Verbal intervention was used.

Treasuries:
Prices down after strong rally yesterday.

Energy:
WTI crude and NG ripping.

Metals:
Gold a bit tepid, but silver, platinum, and palladium higher.

S&P Outlook:
Anything above 2050.22 on the cash S&P, or 2062 on the e-mini could set a bullish tone for the next several trading days, and would strongly suggest that the wave-four scenario shown yesterday may have concluded, or is very close to doing so.

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