The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, April 7, 2016

Thursday -- JPY, Bears & Short Interest, Worker's Paradise

S&P E-mini Futures:
Did not like last night and early morning JPY action one bit.

Asia was mixed, Europe down so far. Cautious tone thus far.

One minute the Fed is dovish. The next it's perceived as hawkish.

I think that's exactly the way they want it. Confused fish make the easiest targets.

Also, it's more likely the antics in the yen that's causing trubs.

Meanwhile, much is being made of the conundrum of record short interest amid extremely bearish sentiment. It would be helpful to recall that back in July 2008 record short interest correctly predicted the biggest financial collapses in history. So maybe bears have a point.

This is how things looked over at Stocktwits as of this morning.

Pretty bearish yes. But not to some.

“There’s an enormous demand coming,” said Thomas J. Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC., in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Retail investors are about to put a lot of money into the equity markets because they’re trend followers."

I would say the enormous demand was short covering from the Feb lows.

Another aspect of social mood is that taunting humor is creeping back.

This from a wealth manager who appears less concerned with his fiduciary duty to clients than with cracking jokes:

Notice the number of likes and retweets. Doesn't sound very bearish to me.

I don't want likes when I tweet something counter to the crowd. I want to be jeered. Then I know I've got a good chance of being right.

Remember this?


The VIX can stay low (and go lower) for a long time as complacency builds. Just make sure the joke's not on you when it turns.

Elsewhere, stunts like this only makes sense with Latin American-style socialism which demonizes the employer and the employed and coddles the poor:

Long live the worker's paradise.

It's the yen again. Threatened the 108 level early this morning. The BOJ's negative interest rates have caused a run on cash at home. It just might be that simple.

Prices hanging at highs (and even higher) again.

WTI crude lower while NG rallies.

Gold, silver, and platinum moving higher. Copper and palladium bucking the trend.

S&P Outlook:
Here was the last crack at a decent near-term wave count:

Updated. "C" could either be "X" or a "3" before new all-time highs:

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