The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, April 18, 2016

Monday -- The Doha Dud

S&P E-mini Futures:
Surprising comeback after the Doha non-decision.

Doha was a dud, which is why it's best to focus on wave patterns and sentiment rather than news-created hysteria.

Perhaps the latest example is a well-written post by fellow blogger Northman Trader that was picked up by Zero Hedge and now Marketwatch. The theme? A Big Move is coming.

Northman (whose popularity seemed to skyrocketed after he changed his handle to Northy) sees 324 points up or down, soon.

I don't. Not yet anyway. I think the near-term upside will be muted (2151.86 target) and downside could possibly be confined to 1700-1750 for a bit longer.

On longer time frames, yes, much more radical targets. Just probably not there yet.

Bottom line: a bit skeptical now that his view has been pounced upon by the "news."

Mood wise, found some interesting patterns amid the noise at Trend Hunter:

Car Brand Hotel Suites
Bentley Offers Owners Access to a Suite at the St. Regis Istanbul Hotel
(from one protective cocoon to another as wealth becomes more and more vilified)

On-Demand Yacht Rentals
IMMIDIA is Like the Uber of the Seas
(would rather be long towing and salvage companies when these newly rich run aground while Instagramming selfies)

Supercar Training Programs
The Aston Martin Vulcan Driver Experience Program is Exclusive
(as we saw in the recent Super Car idiots compilation, experience much needed for asphalt pilots with too much horsepower)

Barren Modernist Boutiques
The Olaf Hussein Store in Amsterdam is Almost Entirely Bare
(a telling metaphor for the appearance of wealth when there's actually nothing there but borrowed credit on borrowed time)

Idyllic Underwater Restaurants
The Maldives Will Boast the World's Biggest Underwater Restaurant
(another subtle wealth metaphor -- wealth about to be upside down, for example, underwater mortgages)

Personal Submersible Vehicles
The Undersea Aquahoverer Submarine Design is Easy to Drive
(ditto: liquidity diving toward illiquidity)

Seems that while luxury is still alive and well, it may be showing signs of a coming retrenchment.

Back to the markets, where earnings woes persist in financials: Morgan Stanley revenues fell 21% after Citigroup reported last week that its revenues were down 11%. Recall Wells Fargo's revs fell 5.9% and BofA's fell 13%. This continued weak action is telegraphing something that the Fed doesn't want to hear: that QE ain't working.

Btw, Goldman reports tomorrow. Then we gear up for the Fed meeting April 26th and 27th.

Finally, speaking of hysteria, seems like some at WallStreetBets are about to blow a gasket.

In an answer to "Can someone please explain to me why the markets are going up?" seemingly asked in disbelief after the Doha Dud that "should" have led to a down market, there was this cryptic admission:

"Besides being completely rigged. I speculate it has something to do with the Panama papers, scaring the 1% into not hiding so much and invest it instead. 

"I'm fucking done. Trembling...want to hit the sell button, want to jump off a building. Mind blown, and yet not really surprised...just hurt."

And incredibly, then this:

USD slightly down yet firm. CHF stronger yet not with its usual sidekick, JPY.

Prices down and yields higher post-Doha crude fizzle.

WTI crude still down post-Doha, looks bouncy yet not impulsive. NG higher correcting last few days of lower prices.

Gold not getting much love lately, but silver finally took out 16.37 and sold off in a small 5-wave impulse pattern, so who knows what's next.

Platinum and palladium down, copper up.

S&P Outlook:
2078.13 was broken Friday -- early warning. Then 2075 was pierced this morning. Then prices reversed and ripped higher.

Likely the market now seeks to complete "v" of a smaller wave-5 of 1, then correction possible to 1950 for 2 before rally in 3, 4, and 5 targeting 2151.86.

(Elliott wave is all about getting to the end of the 5th wave and correcting in 3 waves. Also, these aren't "correct" Elliott labels. They're just as simple as possible)

For Fibonacci aficionados notice this morning's perfect backtest of the 127% extension.

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