The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Tuesday -- Sea Of Green, Weak Internals, 1% Away

S&P E-mini Futures:
Higher baby.

Sea Of Green across the world's markets. Japan up over 3% on earthquakes. Germany up over 2% on the highest ZEW investor and analyst expectations since December and more EU stimulus expectations. Oil is higher, silver is ripping.

Everything looks so great that CNBC will probably tell us that the reason why rates are higher today is "the right reason." Remember that meme they were working for a while, until it fizzled?

Or perhaps are higher because of that Rosengren guy from the Boston Fed who said that “I don’t think the financial markets have it right”; “We will be raising rates faster than what’s reflected in the financial markets.”

Regardless, this is still a market that is not ready for higher rates.

Could higher rates soon spread to Sweden, too? Heard from Erica Blomgren that "Riksbank's 'shadow board' (DI) votes no to further stimulus. 2 out of 6 considers rate hike this summer, 3 want to reduce QE already in spring."

Elsewhere, IBM joined the ranks of cruddy revenues last night. Goldman reported this morning and it was grim. Bloomberg noted the revenue fell to the lowest since Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein took the top post in 2006.

Goldman's revenue fell 60 percent in the 1st quarter.

The joyous party extends to FX where GBP is in full bounce mode and commods AUD, CAD, NOK, and MXN are strong. JPY is understandably weaker in the face of expected earthquake stimulus, yet CHF is stronger again.

Against all of this fun, USD is down but not out. Relatively firm again.

Prices down, yields up again.

WTI crude and especially NG ripping higher, the latter up over 2% currently.

Here's something for the dudes at WallStreetBets to be aware of when big oil meetings get hyped: OPEC only represents 40% of the world's oil production.

Gold lacking relative strength vs silver last few days which could suggest a deeper retracement coming, yet both higher in addition to platinum and palladium. Copper sitting out the rally yet again, which, combined with the sobriety of treasuries, may be a small canary about to spread its wings.

S&P Outlook:
As shown yesterday, the market may simply be concluding a fifth wave higher and about to retrace. The fifth wave may explain the bullish tone amid weak internals.

I expect a reversal soon, yet with the all-time highs only 1% away, will confine my bets to VIX calls and OEX puts until the market tips its hand. After all, the advice at WallStreetBets this morning is to "Sell everything. Zerohedge predicts that Japan is being torn apart by earthquakes. (Four horsemen spotted near Fukushima)." Got that?

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