The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Tuesday -- Atlante, Alcoa, BOJ, Mercedes, Wells, Chalk & Cheese

S&P E-mini Futures:
Another choppy overnight rebound. Yay Alcoa.

Italy formed a new $5.7B fund to bail out troubled its banks. It's called Atlante. Sounds like Atlantis, which is rumored to be underwater somewhere.

Alcoa kicked off Q1 earnings with net income falling 92%. Not a typo.

Another blow to the credibility of the BOJ:

In a reversal of policy, "the Bank of Japan is reducing the share of funds financial institutions keep at the BOJ that will be subject to the new negative interest rate policy." This is a another indication that negative interest rates are not having their intended effect -- unless a run on cash and a vastly stronger yen were the intentions.

Mercedes sales climbed twice as fast as BMW in Q1. Would love to see a chart of Daimler-Benz sales vs BMW sales overlaid on a DAX chart to see if there is any correlation with tops and bottoms -- not quite sure what a rush to luxury vs a rush to performance might mean from a social mood standpoint.

Speaking of social mood, the 2016 Social Mood Conference was just held in Atlanta once again. Didn't hear much from it.

But if you want social mood at its finest, there's an hilarious story from Bloomberg regarding Wells Fargo timing the oil market:

"At its annual investor conference in San Francisco in May 2014, with oil trading at $102 a barrel, Wells Fargo & Co. boasted that in just two years it had almost doubled its energy exposure and seized the title of Wall Street’s top oil and gas banker."

Hubris and markets go together like chalk & cheese.

Big day thus far in commodity currencies such as AUD, CAD, NOK, and I'll even toss MXN in there (Gold, copper, and silver were once the largest commodities of Mexico; doubtful they're all gone. Oil remains a large resource).

JPY and CHF slightly weaker. USD hanging tough in light of everything else.

Day three of a choppy pullback.

The higher WTI crude rips, the more people get excited. NG ripping too.

Higher across the board thus far. Silver still gunning for 16.37 which it desperately needs.

S&P Outlook:
Trying to keep things real simple with the S&P wave count. Not currently seeing it as a larger first-wave in the works, either. Seeing it as terminal for now, but a lot can change.

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