The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Wednesday -- Beige Book

S&P E-mini Futures:
Higher in continuation of yesterday's rally.

Hope springs eternal from China, where government-released numbers made everything sound great to merry traders around the world. Very dangerous to trade on Chinese numbers.

The Fed releases its Beige Book today at 2pm.

Asia was all green last night, and so is Europe thus far. Giddiness abounds.

Elsewhere, as a long-term bull on India, I love seeing this:

Bloomberg reported that "JPMorgan is joining the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank AG in exiting India’s 13.5 trillion rupees ($204 billion) mutual-fund market, the seventh international manager to leave in the past three years."

That's just the sort of negative sentiment I want to see near the bottom of a correction.

India will eat China over the long term as China implodes from within. I also look to Mexico to benefit long term from a future implosion in China.

Yes, Mexico, due to its geographical location (much lower shipping costs), skilled workforce, natural resources, and low cost labor.

However, I do see much higher prices first on the Shanghai Composite as long as the 2,000 level holds.

Supposedly the USD is "toast" yet it continues to respect Fib levels and rallies when and where it should. Today it is higher after respecting the 94 level. Such action does not preclude still lower prices, but it does continue to show corrective behavior.

Commodity currencies are weaker. JPY weaker too.

Day 4 of pullback in prices, but some hesitancy appearing thus far this morning.

WTI crude down on more pre-Doha meeting cat herding among the OPEC cartel. NG higher.

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium down, while copper rallies.

S&P Outlook:
Still liking lower levels before the S&P blasts off to new all-time highs. So today's rally could fail somewhere in the 2070s and test the 2017-2027 area per this scenario.

Otherwise 2134.72 and 2151.86 remain key targets.

No comments:

Post a Comment