The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Tuesday -- Yen Signals Risk Off

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down hard. Global Risk Off.

News:
It's the yen man.

And here in Puerto Rico, it's the GDB, the Government Development Bank, which just announced a moratorium on debt payments. This should shock the system pretty good and cause a cascade of events both here and on the mainland. It's the tip of a $72 billion iceberg.

FX:
Finally the markets got a global wake up call from JPY which surged after slowly strengthening for several days.

Treasuries:
Price higher, yields lower. Probably better than the corollary on a day like this.

Energy:
WTI crude achieved the 35 area as expected. NG has not achieved anything higher, as expected.

Metals:
PMs loving the Risk Off tone thus far, yet palladium flat. And copper up, but up slightly.

S&P Outlook:
Today 2059.24 should break and yield at least a test of 2030-2040. It still appears there are more subdivisions left to go for higher prices, but the action lower should be a fourth wave of some sort.

The cautionary thing is that the market could fall a long way before it signaled a break in the developing up trend. For now, 1969.25 seems like a probable line in the sand.

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