The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Wednesday -- FOMC Minutes, Short Interest

S&P E-mini Futures:
Tepid overnight bounce.

Asia was also tepid, and so is Europe thus far.

FOMC minutes get released at 2pm today along with plenty of Fedspeak to contradict whatever the minutes show. Feels like it might be rather quiet until then, however below the surface there is a lot going on.

Bloomberg reported that short interest has risen to another all-time high as the market has rallied off the Feb lows. Keeps pressure on higher prices.

Bloomberg also brought attention to China's FX losses, noting that "980 listed Chinese companies reported combined foreign-exchange losses of 48.7 billion yuan ($7.5 billion) for last year."

"...almost 13 times the amount in 2014."

Perhaps another destabilizing yuan devaluation is in the cards at some point.

Meanwhile, yet another central banker is coming clean regarding experimental monetary policy. India’s central bank governor Rajan admitted, “Either we need stronger growth or we need to recognize we’ve reached the limits of monetary policy.”

True everywhere.

All eyes remain on JPY. Again, the candy-colored was on it:

Thing is, Japan might not have a say. Markets are far larger and far more powerful than central banks will ever be, even if they band together in a George Soros-style fetishized fantasy of a global central bank.

More likely the world's central bankers end up testing the markets' tolerance...and fail.

Meanwhile, USD stronger, CHF weaker, CAD weaker, Mexican Peso (MXN) notably weaker.

Prices hovering as volume decreases.

WTI crude is ripping on the latest API report which showed a surprise inventory drawdown. It was probably ready to bounce anyway after retracing to the 35 area.

NG currently off nearly 2%.

Down across the board.

S&P Outlook:
Now that 2059.24 has broken, odds have increased that we're in some sort of wave-four correction but that today could see a bounce. Want to sell it if it occurs.

Still looking for 2030-2040 area or even 2017 area.

No comments:

Post a Comment