The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Wednesday -- Saudi Arabia Taps The Debt Markets

S&P E-mini Futures:
Reversed higher from a choppy decline.

News:
Just 1% away from the all-time highs and once again the market showed its customary need for a time out & rest period.

Asia was mixed last night with China notably under performing. Europe is showing signs of mixed action too with weakness in UK FTSE 100.

Stunned by this:

"Saudi Arabia is raising $10bn from a consortium of global banks as the kingdom embarks on its first international debt issuance in 25 years to counter dwindling oil revenues and reserves." (emphasis added)

Preparing for a "post-oil" future sounds more and more like preparing for no more oil. Thus I remain bullish on oil regardless if lower prices occur (and I hope they do).

FX:
USD remains firm and above its recent swing low. A rally seems unexpected and could flip everything around.

Treasuries:
Prices showing lukewarm signs of life.

Energy:
WTI crude sold off from yesterday's new rally high.

NG blew sky high from its recent low, rising in a text book 5-wave impulse structure. It is still up over 1% yet could probably use a rest.

Metals:
Gold down, silver continuing to rip higher. Platinum and palladium higher. Copper down again.

S&P Outlook:
TRIN (short term trading index) hit an intraday low of .34 yesterday which is lowwww. Such action argues for a bearish market reversal soon.

Do I think the S&P could reach a higher high before rolling over? Yes.

There are a number of Fibonacci extension targets that could come into play beforehand.:2107.72-2109.98-2112.02 are all game along with last November's big 2116.48 swing point.

Ticks & A/Ds have been supportive for the most part, yet are starting to cave in.

Up-down volume difference did cave in yesterday, which is ominous action at a new rally high.

Remaining on alert for a reversal after what could be just a few more minor subdivisions higher. Would prefer a new all-time high above 2134.72 if anyone asks.

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