The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, May 20, 2016

Friday -- Supply, Heat Wave, Op-Ex

S&P E-mini Futures:
Higher overnight in continuation of yesterday's late day rally.

Oil supply disruptions making news again.

Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said, "If we had supply disruptions from places like Canada, Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya like this 5 years ago we wouldn’t be up $5, we’d be up $25 - that is probably a testament to the oversupply still in the market."

This makes today's 1pm Baker Hughes rig count all the more interesting.

Also, coinciding with the full moon on Saturday is the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Japan, which could be interesting as well.

Asia was mostly green last night ex-India (where temps reached 123 degrees), and Europe is well up.

USD pausing slightly giving a slight Risk On tone to others.

Half-hearted bounce yesterday not inspiring confidence.

WTI crude back pushing highs. NG rallying in sympathy.

Up across the board as bulls gather themselves post-Fed, possibly taking cues from weak bounce in treasuries.

S&P Outlook:
Today is op-ex, so this morning's rally is not unexpected. It's what comes after that could be.

Shared this chart intraday and using it until wrong. Now thinking 3 may already be in.

It still views current action as corrective and still envisions new rally highs above 2111.05 and possibly 2134.72.

It also only represents "a" of an "abc" correction lower, possibly to 1950.

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