The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Thursday -- Markets Unnerved By New Backbone At The Fed

S&P E-mini Futures:
Trading heavy, down.

The Fed finally got a backbone. Fed Minutes were hawkish. Weird markets around the globe. DAX especially.

USD loves the Fed of late. Risk Off again in FXland. Commodity currencies hammered, and JPY stronger.

Terrible recent action got even more terrible post-minutes. Trying to rally thus far today.

WTI crude and NG have broken hard from their recent rallies and need to be watched closely.

Grim action has continued across the board, taking the potential rate message quite seriously for the time being.

S&P Outlook:
The full moon is Saturday at 5:24pm. Markets could trade heavy into the weekend and (possibly) reverse next week. Not looking like option expiration will have much effect, but who knows.

My bias remains long, but I want to accommodate lower prices. Seeing some positive divergence but not enough yet. Beginning to add XIV against current holdings in UVXY and TVIX and trading puts and calls when opportunities arise.

There is a 1:1 Fib extension target at 2013.27 that lines up with the 200dma currently at the 2011 area.

Based on the recent patterns, have been looking for a test of the 2085-2100 area but yesterday's action clouded that scenario. Feels as though price needs to tip its hand for better odds to be traded.

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