The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Thursday -- M&A, Brazil, JPY, Scenario 2 With A Twist

S&P E-mini Futures:
Ripping higher overnight, reclaiming much of yesterday's losses.

Just what one would expect during the "surprising disappointment" of a large degree wave four pullback in Elliott wave terminology:

"Wall Street bankers celebrated last year as mergers and acquisitions reached the highest level ever, topping even pre-crash 2007. This year M&A is hitting a more dubious record: Deals gone bust."

Note that in 2015 deals eclipsed pre-crash levels before falling.

The set up remains for the market to make a new all-time high sooner or later and do so with much lower dealmaking volume, thus sending a very large message of negative divergence.

Asia was quite mixed last night, but Europe is well up.

Brazil just voted to suspend President Dilma Rousseff. This is the sort of news that usually accompanies or precedes significant market lows, however Brazil is already up over 26% this year. Another reason not to trade news.

Largely a Risk Off appearance with AUD & CAD weakness and CHF strength, but JPY throwing a monkey wrench, weakening on latest BOJ comments.

Seem to be reacting negatively to equity strength at the moment, prices lower.

WTI crude was bid to a new near-term high overnight of favorable supply and demand figures. NG down.

Vacillating above and below the flatline.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday's fizzled rally elevated the odds for scenario #2.

But there's a twist (as always): "A" could also be "1" of  "5" to a new all-time high, however. And the current decline could be an ABC correction in "2" down to as low as 1950.

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