The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, May 13, 2016

Friday -- Retail Surprise

Down here it's all about the morning, and I need more of it.

So starting next Monday I will be posting during what is usually my down time, 10:15-11:45am EST, the period surrounding the European close, when I normally don't trade.

The sun gets hot so fast that any kind of activity gets unbearable outside of early morning, and I'd simply like to spend more time getting a little sun, swimming, and walking the beach.

S&P E-mini Futures:
Was down in a sloppy, messy decline that just turned higher on the Retail Sales number.

Regardless of this morning's Retail Sales figures surprised -- up 1.3%, the biggest increase in a year -- retail is getting hammered, with upscale heavyweight Nordstrom the latest casualty.

CNBC noted that sales are shifting toward online.

Wondering how long until the retail industry (and the government) turns against Amazon and Bezos ends up with a regulatory nightmare. It might be why he bought the Washington Post.

Asia had a red night, and Europe is looking that way thus far as well.

USD hit a new rally high last night from its recent lows. AUD & CAD weaker. JPY a bit stronger.

A great point that I agree with: if USD strength recovers in the next several months, China will likely devalue again, and the result could be messy.

Higher prices continue to look like the goal.

WTI crude choppy pullback since its most recent high could be a consolidation before continued advance. NG may be forming a bullish rising wedge.

Copper turning positive, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium lower.

S&P Outlook:
Near-term scenario. Sooner or later, prices head a bit lower. That's my current view. Then sooner or later, prices make new all-time highs. That's my view too.

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