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Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Tuesday -- Longest Bull Correction, Welcome To Vol, Wedge Wave Count

S&P E-mini Futures:
Another crazed rally born from the wee hours of the morning.

News:
Ned Davis Research is out with an interesting statistic that was picked up by a contributing writer at Marketwatch.com.



If we're indeed setting a record for the longest correction, odds are probably increasing that it's nearly over.

I don't know where we go from here. But I'm pretty sure as long as central banks are in charge, we're going to break all sorts of records up, down, and all around. In other words, welcome to volatility.

FX:
USD strength is cause for AUD trubs. If it persists, it will cause a lot more trubs.

Treasuries:
Rolling over in unison from yet another weak bounce. Likely cause for concern at the Fed, possibly the real reason for higher rate talk: not because the Fed is in control, but because the markets are.

Energy:
WTI crude appears in a high level consolidation before higher. NG is currently struggling.

Metals:
Copper is the lone leader thus far. Gold looks like it's gunning for 1200.

S&P Outlook:
Previous view needed adjusting. Looking more likely that "a" is in. The alternate is that "c" could be in too. But that could depend on today's close.


Today could still be "4" headed to "5" which could make the "a" of a larger correction down to around 1950.

Or, "a" could be in and we're headed to "b."

Or the correction is over and we're to all-time highs (not shown). The bottom line is that no matter how it's counted, the whole structure appears as a wedge, which is usually corrective unless it's forming the first wave of a much larger impulse.

Updated chart. Note that since I made this chart, the S&P has climbed above the upper trend line. 


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