The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Wednesday -- Sea Of Green, Flurry Of Optimism, Fading Momentum

S&P E-mini Futures:
Overnight continuation higher.

News:
Even with China's devaluation of the Yuan last night to the lowest level in 5 years, markets did not flinch.

A Sea Of Green prevails.

In a world where the Fed has become completely data dependent, we should probably expect rosy data (so they can raise rates for their shareholders), but yesterday's New Home Sales increased by 17 standard deviations. Crazy.

Maybe that's why treasuries look so shaky.

And why Dennis Gartman, who just flipped net short the other day, has now reversed and warned shorts to "run for cover."

Bloomberg reported that Brazil's newly appointed Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles acknowledged that the country’s fiscal problems are "much worse than anyone had imagined." I remain a contrarian.

Atlas Shrugged: Chevron and Exxon shareholders will vote on limiting oil and gas exploration. Money saved would be paid to investors in dividends and buybacks, according to Bloomberg.

Just the type of situation, along with record numbers of oil tankers sitting idle (and full) in Singapore, that could send the price of oil a lot higher than most expect.

Excess supply is not excess supply if it never makes it to market.

Correction: My Aunt's memorial service is today, not Tuesday. But my whole family will be attending, which is great.

I very much miss being there, and wish everyone safe travels.

May she rest in peace.

FX:
USD look to be taking a breather after its ripping month-long rally, and setting the tone for others.

Treasuries:
Prices still look rather abysmal but trying to recover.

Energy:
WTI crude's bid remains. NG's chances at a bullish rising wedge are fading fast. It needs a break out higher soon.

Metals:
Gold got pummeled yesterday and still looks like it want 1200 or below. Silver and copper are higher, but platinum and palladium are taking their cues from gold for the time being.

S&P Outlook:
This is how things were shaping up to me at yesterday's close.


The chart could be drawn better. 2100 is game. Today, however, momentum does seem to be fading as price continues higher.

Ticks, A/Ds, and TRIN are setting up. Yet pre-holiday bias and window dressing seem to be counter-punching well.

VIX is almost below its lower 2 standard deviation line. Would love to see a close below it (about 13.50) amid the flurry of optimism.

Everything suggests patience until perhaps early next week for VIX calls and SPY puts.

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