The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, June 17, 2016

Friday -- Quadruple Witching

S&P E-mini Futures:
Slight give back of yesterday's reversal rally.

News:
Cash on the sidelines, the age-old hook. It's back:


Bloomberg -- "Amid all the murk surrounding Britain’s vote on leaving the European Union, one thing is certain: a lot of cash is piling up just outside the equity market, and having it all come flowing back has the potential to put a charge in stocks."

Feels like the charge started yesterday.

Today is a quadruple witching options expiration: four asset classes of options -- stock options, stock index options, stock index futures options, and single stock futures options -- expire today in a hot mess.

Another hot mess: the Summer Solstice takes place on Monday along with a full moon.

FX:
Odd day thus far. AUD down, CAD up, JPY weaker, GBP, CHF & EUR stronger, USD weaker

Treasuries:
Fresh topping tails again yesterday. Feels like the whole world is long.

Energy:
WTI crude declined sharply yesterday yet is reclaiming it now. NG just below YD's fresh highs.

Metals:
Precious metals got pummeled yesterday along with USD, which is unusual. Copper firm.

S&P Outlook:
Latest wave count updated. Yesterday was not really a surprise.

There is still a small chance that yesterday's low could have marked a wave 2 low of a rising wedge to new all-time highs (not shown), but I simply don't think the market has gone low enough yet. If so, yesterday could have been wave A of and ABC down.

Either way, it feels as if price ultimately wants a bit higher.


Scaled out some XIV end of day.


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