The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Thursday -- Certainty In Uncertainty

S&P E-mini Futures:
Nearing new overnight lows after yesterday afternoon's sharp reversal.

By some counts, Fed chair Janet Yellen said uncertain 11 times yesterday in her press conference following the FOMC rate decision.

Even heard her say ..."we're quite uncertain"... at one point.

Experimental research product was another bit of Yellen verbage that seemed like accidental subtext -- unintended communication at odds with conscious intent. It was a great description of monetary policy, however.

Seems the only thing the Fed is certain about is that it doesn't know what to do next when the chart below shows 8 years of the "experimental research product" failure, otherwise known as QE.

All that money is going nowhere, and the Fed knows it.

It was also the second time since March that Yellen closed her statement with the ominous sounding "future, large, adverse shock." A warning?

And maybe I'm a bit dense, but I've never noticed the Fed, the BOJ, the BOE, and the SNB conducting monetary policy within the same two days of each other, but it just occurred this week. All made no changes.

As mentioned yesterday, it seems the public is being conditioned for a single, supranational, central bank. Perhaps after a large, adverse shock. Good luck with that.

Back to accidental subtext. It works visually too.

According to this photo, the wave of liquidity is cresting. And airborne surfer dude is about to come swooping down.

Gravity. Wicked Gravity.

I do however think Britain's exit from the EU could be good for Britain.

Stress response (negative carry unwind) caused JPY to soar overnight (while Nikkei crated 3%). Commodity currencies fell hard. USD rallied.

Higher prices lived for another day. But today is yet another day.

WTI crude hitting fresh correction lows this morning. NG still configured for higher.

Gold broke above its 1306 swing point. Looks to me like it needs more volume, but open interest may come to the rescue -- expanding heavily.

New rally highs in silver overnight, along with higher prices for platinum and palladium, while copper is currently declining over 2%.

S&P Outlook:
Added XIV pre market. If yesterday's chart is correct -- or close to correct -- 2080 should get tested again.

Will be watching VIX to see if 22.16 gets exceeded today (or not) as the market hopefully tests the 2052 volume shelf area and the 61.8% retracement at 2062.06.

The 50dma has failed however, and pressure could soon mount on the 200dma at 2016.

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