The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, June 24, 2016

Friday -- There Will Always Be An England

S&P E-mini Futures:
Sharply down amid historic moves. Currently bouncing after being halted limit down at 1999. Prince lives.

News:
UK votes to leave the EU.

UK Prime Minister David Cameron resigned.

Marketwatch -- ‘Panic’ and ‘bloodbath’ — analysts react to U.K.’s decision to Brexit.

Key words for EU this morning "Political Contagion." Scottish referendum back on the table, as well as similar demands issued by the Netherlands, France, and Italy.

Key moves from central banks: possible global, coordinated policy response.

More stimulus most likely.

FX:
Extreme moves.

GBP traded down as much as 12% to 1.32. A 30-year low and all-time record move.

USDJPY down as much as 7%, reached 98.78.

USD higher. Commodity currencies hammered.

Treasuries:
Prices went from recent ugly down moves to ugly, manic shifts higher.

Energy:
WTI crude hammered but stayed above its 45.91 swing point. NG down but firm.

Metals:
Gold soared above 1362. Silver spiked above 18. Precious platinum up 2%, while more industrial palladium and copper down over 2%

S&P Outlook:
Last order of business yesterday was to buy SPY 204 puts just about 30 seconds after the market closed on its highs.  These will be dumped at the open, in the money.

2000 should be tested today. I will begin to add XIV. The possibility, previously raised by Deutsche Bank, of a coordinated central bank response could do unexpected things to the markets. For one thing, VIX is not up to levels where I would have thought.

In other words, now that the market has provided its upset to bulls, it could easily provide an upset to bears as stimulus aftershocks take place.

Currency moves do not seem to have reached their limits yet and, all things considered, seem a bit resilient. The first tell thus far, along with VIX.

As soon as the waves establish themselves, I will show a chart with a potential wave count.

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