The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, June 27, 2016

Monday -- Hanging Chads, BIS Warns, Boris REBOOTS

S&P E-mini Futures:
Back to Prince territory, yet looking firmer.

Seems the world may experience what Americans went through during the infamous Florida Recount of the 2000 election.

Seems the Brexit vote may not matter until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered, and it seems that Prime Minister Cameron is dragging his heels.

Article 50 states the following:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention.

Simple enough. Easy to delay. Yet supposedly the EU will not put up with a delay, but that could only be "publicly."

Focusing on Brexit therefore will probably only court confusion.

Better still to focus on central banks. And the central bank for central banks: the BIS in Basel, Switzerland.

The BIS has just released its 86th Annual Report, and once again contains a stark warning courtesy of Bloomberg's summation:

“Monetary policy is running out of room for maneuver,” said Hyun Song Shin, head of research at the BIS, in an interview. “It is not clear how much further stimulus of the real economy can be achieved using monetary-policy tools alone without inviting unwanted distortions.”

God bless London Mayor Boris Johnson, though. He gave The Socionomic Implications Of September Vogue: 2014 its long awaited REBOOT.

In an op-ed Sunday evening, he wrote:

"There is every cause for optimism; a Britain rebooted, reset, renewed and able to engage with the whole world. "

Cheers Boris. Cheers Britain.

USD stronger, JPY stronger, GBP new lows probing 1.32 (started building long position in pre market). CHF weaker, along with commodity currencies.

Nikkei up over 2% last night on fresh stimulus measures in the pipeline according to Shinzo Abe's wishes (who didn't read the BIS report).

Feels like everyone's on the same bullish side of the boat. HSBC Holdings Plc’s head of fixed-income research Steven Major says "we’ll have low and negative rates for a very long period of time.”

Not so sure, especially when BIS is staring to sound downright scary, with some of its similar themes echoed in this Bloomberg article:

WTI crude down in a choppy decline. NG possible 5-waves down, 3-up pattern which could be near-term bearish after its long rally.

Metals higher across the board.

S&P Outlook:
The S&P cash has opened down (at a 1:1 Fib extension in the 2016 area) as futures retest the overnight Prince post-Brexit lows at 1999. Added more XIV in pre market (started adding Friday).

There is a possible 161.8% Fib extension target at 1980 that could shift the tone near term if hit.

Posted a possible bullish chart on Friday intraday that has just been negated due to 2025.91 breaking.

Now thinking a test of the 2000 level or possibly 1950-1980 could see a wave 2 low.

Or a developing impulse to even lower levels. Exciting times.

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