The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Tuesday -- When Every Outcome Is Bullish

S&P E-mini Futures:
Overnight turnaround higher from yesterday's weak close, but coming off best levels.

News:
Sea Of Green™ 'round the world as markets rejoice on Yellen's latest comments. Speaking about rising rates, the definitively ominous "in the coming months" was replaced with a vague "probably" that left the door wide open to pushing off hiking rates indefinitely.

Here's the sentiment snapshot, noted via Marketwatch.com:


When every outcome is bullish, there is no more market.

FX:
AUD and GBP are the standouts today, both stronger, yet curiously USD is holding rather firm.

Treasuries:
Prices hanging at highs.

Energy:
WTI crude new rally high above 50. NG continues to look bullish.

Metals:
Copper getting pummeled as metals take a hit across the board.

S&P Outlook:
The S&P cash got above the April 2111.05 swing point yet closed below it on lighter volume, which is not usually a good indication.

In this case, it didn't matter. Asia went green and Europe followed. S&P E-mini futures followed too.

But with futures now coming off their best levels, however, it's not certain we're clear for takeoff. I'd almost prefer a new all-time high at this point, with internals looking the way they do.

That said, here is an updated near-term bearish view with a corrected scenario. Note that price could still rise in an X wave, but could not exceed the all-time high at 2134.72.






No comments:

Post a Comment