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Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Wednesday -- Euro Zone Deflation, JPY, NG, Sloppy Action

S&P E-mini Futures:
Rolled over to retest yesterday's lows.

News:
Not looking too swell in Europe thus far where Euro-Zone PMI dipped to a 3-month low, and EZ also remains in deflation.

This should have cheered bulls hoping for yet more stimulus, but at a certain point even the stimulus fans realize when it's not working.

FX:
Yesterday's warning from CHF has spread to JPY where strength is alarming equities. AUD & CAD & NOK are stronger on a weaker USD, but the USD action looks quite sloppy thus far.

Treasuries:
Ideally, based on larger patterns, treasury prices should kick into gear soon, which they are so far this morning.

Energy:
WTI crude has backed off from its recent 50.21 high much the same as USD has backed off its recent high, which could suggest eventually higher in both.

NG is ripping yet again and seems to be gunning for 2.495 on the continuous contract which could pave the way for yet higher prices longer term.

Metals:
Gold and silver continue to rebound, possibly taking their cues from treasuries. Gold looks a bit better off than silver, though. Copper is having a rough time thus far. Platinum and palladium seem to be struggling a bit as well.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday's decline was dissatisfying, as does today's thus far in the futures. Time to dump most of the puts from Friday.

True, there is a juicy spot at the 2075 area, but the wave structure feels corrective. The one thing to like is that, if it's true that price could be in a b-wave, it should start acting weird and getting really sloppy. So maybe that's what's starting to occur.

Otherwise, am simply leaving the door open to slightly higher prices.

Sloppy action seems to be a theme across many assets of late, and it's probably due to the amount of cross-currents that June presents to investors. It could become even more sloppy.

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