The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, June 2, 2016

Thursday -- Bluffing, Or Herding Cats

S&P E-mini Futures:
Up and down overnight swings.

Draghi or OPEC. Bluffing, or herding cats.

I'll take neither.

The action out of Europe says it all. Spain and Italy are ripping higher, while the country that pays for their largess, Germany, is down. Much could change by the European close, but for the moment the message is clear.

As for OPEC, trying to get 13 different nations to agree on how much they'll win or lose is futile at best.

Ironically, this headline crossed as I was typing: OPEC FAILS TO REACH PRODUCTION TARGET

The "news" may be coming from Japan.

BOJ member Sato admitted that "negative interest rate policy has effect of monetary tightening, rather than an effect of easing."

In other words, deflationary.

Nikkei's -2.3% hammering on Sato's comments brought JPY strength, not a good signal generally. Commodity currencies weaker. Possible Risk Off signal.

Prices keep trying higher, but not making much progress.

WTI crude as messy as equity futures pre-OPEC. NG may need a rest soon, but continues to form an impulsive structure.

Gold and silver trying to bounce, but platinum, palladium, and copper red.

S&P Outlook:
Dumped the puts at yesterday's open. Bought calls but dumped them early. Sloppy action is not inspiring.

If yesterday's 2100.97 holds, there is a 1:1 Fib extension target at 2082.59.

Staying above 2093.68 keeps pressure on higher prices, possibly even the 2134.72 all-time high.

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