The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, September 19, 2016

Monday -- Private Equity, BoJ, Credibility, Target Levels

S&P E-mini Futures:
Continuing Friday afternoon's bounce.

“These guys aren’t scared of an empty building."

Love it.

Once again, Private Equity plunges into real estate, just like it did in 2006-2007.

This time they're called *shadow lenders.*


Meanwhile, the BoJ meets this week and chatter is that it could have a bigger impact than the Fed meeting.

Not sure I agree with that. Both are increasingly lacking credibility of late, and it should not surprise to see some bizarre actions...which could include the Fed too.

It's not a done deal that they won't raise. Perhaps they will just to save face.

Doubtful, of course, especially with the election close by.

But such one-sided opinion smacks of the one-sided opinion the night before the Brexit vote.

So let's just call it a potentially important week.

Last Friday's quiet FX tone didn't last. USD eventually ripped higher. Today there is some giveback benefiting AUD & CAD. JPY is weaker pre-BoJ.

Price structure still looks confused across 2s-30s.

WTI crude still might be looking at a break of 43.  NG has yet to exceed 2.998 but hasn't backed off much either.

Silver and palladium leading today. Copper lagging.

S&P Outlook:
Currently, futures seem to have a more bullish structure than cash, but this includes Sunday overnight Globex. It remains to be seen how cash trades today in light of last night's futures rally. Cash is just too middle-of-the-page to play right now and would feel like guesswork.

Therefore, once more the wider upper and lower targets remain more risk appropriate:

-- the 2173.16 78.6% Fib retracement with the gap and volume shelf at 2181.30 above

-- and the cluster of Fib targets in the 2103.25-2094.55 zone below

Still feels like the market would be happy to just get back to the 2160 area if it continues to bounce.

No comments:

Post a Comment