The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, November 18, 2016

Friday -- New McLaren, The Facebook, BOJ Unlimited

S&P E-mini Futures:
New rally highs earlier yet not much net price movement.

The McLaren F1 was the fastest production car in the world when it was introduced during the 1992 recession.

Apparently 240 MPH wasn't enough, however, and a successor was unveiled in 2013.

Apparently 903 HP and a $1 million price tag still weren't enough, so the company has just announced an "utterly insane supercar."

It's still just a bunch of drawings and yet McLaren has already sold them all.

Yes, cars that do not yet exist . . . entirely sold out . . .  for millions each.

That's peak social mood. And an apt bookend to the 1995 tech breakout.

Speaking of tech, this could soon be another bookend:

As has been previously stated here, advertising media buyers are a fickle bunch that move in herds. If they should suddenly get spooked, by fraud, the Facebook would need a completely new business model overnight or risk being the biggest flameout ever.

More USD strength, yet EUR may be trying to turn up after a bloody 9-day rout.

JPY strength is a fresh warning however.

The BOJ offered to buy an unlimited amount of debt at fixed yields for the first time after two-year yields nearly turned positive on Wednesday, yet the operation yielded no bids.

Thus the current JPY strength is ominous because it suggests the FX market is calling the BOJ's bluff.

Regarding the BOJ operation, Souichi Takeyama, a rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. said something stunning:

“Markets won’t test levels above these fixed rates as these will be seen as reflecting the BOJ’s upper limit.”

Wanna bet?

Price showing bottoming tails thus far.

WTI crude got bouncy after the latest OPEC comments (more of the same Zzzzzzz) then fell back. NG up over 3% currently.


S&P Outlook:
The market gets more and more tepid the higher it goes. The 2186.16 gap was filled, however. Now what.

Betting that somewhere between current prices and 2204.37 it rolls over. Using SPY 218 puts financed by long e-mini scalps on weak dips.

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