The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, December 12, 2016

Monday -- Yields, Yields, Crude

S&P E-mini Futures:
Coming off fresh overnight highs.

Rising bond yields are finally making headlines. Japanese and German yields went bonkers overnight, and Switzerland is threatening to pop above 0%.

Japanese yields going bonkers is not a long-term recipe for Risk On.

Instead it makes great press to call it inflation, as Morningstar just did, saying that the bond selloff and the surge in crude "heralds potential increases in inflation."

They wish.

Money velocity is still nosediving. There is simply too much dollar-denominated debt to be serviced. Meanwhile the House of Saud is desperately trying to increase its proceeds to support the demands of princes and princesses and their ever growing progeny.

So they cut production more than previously agreed and got other non-OPEC countries to agree to cuts as well.

How that would be enforced is, as-always, unknown.

Meanwhile, London house prices have hit new lows, continuing a trend that is over 3-years old.

Risk On in FXland. Weaker USD, stronger EUR and commodity currencies.

Fresh lows in prices with the short end showing relative strength. Maybe a reversal set up, suggesting another dovish Fed outcome on Wednesday.

The latest OPEC deal -- if successfully enforced -- could be the first global production cut in 15 years and cover about 60 percent of the world’s output.

WTI crude was up over 5% earlier but off its best levels.

NG is down over 5%.

Gold reversed positive to confirm green silver, platinum, and palladium. Copper reversed from up 1% to down 1% earlier -- a breather needed perhaps.

S&P Outlook:
Never got the puts on Friday.

In a runaway market, sometimes it's best to wait for a retracement first, then a weaker high (or even a failed one). The market keeps subdividing higher and people are calling it relentless, which is usually sign of third wave.

2240 area might be a good place to wait for.

Volume and breadth is quietly leaving the market. Friday finished at highs with inverted A/Ds and limp ticks. The NYSE A/D line did erase its negative divergence, however, and finished at new highs. But intraday inversion is usually sign of a pullback developing.

Even with a pullback, this market can float higher on seasonals and holiday cheer until the new year.

Accumulating gold stocks. As Michael Marcus would say, "the little ones."

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