The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Tuesday -- Tech Summit Vs Fed Decision, UniCredit, Real Estate

S&P E-mini Futures:
Higher overnight after another three-wave pullback. Higher prices likely at some point.

Move over, Janet. Trump scheduled his Tech Summit at 2pm on Wednesday, coinciding with the Fed decision. Too funny.

Risk On tone today as Italy’s UniCredit bank announced that it will seek to raise $14 billion in a "rights offer" which sounds like a fancy way of diluting its shares.

Get this. The bank also plans to shed billions of bad loans by bundling them into securities to be sold to investors.

2007-style all over again.

Speaking of 2007, another social mood cue for real estate: the string of bad luck continues for Flip Or Flop HGTV stars Tarek and Christina.

Their house-flipping classes drew widespread complaints, Tarek had a bout of thyroid cancer (which was miraculously discovered by an astute fan of the show -- a registered nurse), and now their marriage is suffering. They recently announced a separation.

This pair has ridden the real estate recovery from the crash lows. Their marital, physical, and professional breakdown could be a social mood warning of an impending real estate breakdown (which would be made all the more ironic under a real-estate President). Stay tuned.

Commodity currencies still gaining.

Day two of an unconvincing rally thus far, understandable however pre-Fed.

WTI crude bouncing in unison with NG.

Gold looks like it wants to rally but, like treasuries, needs a stronger liftoff. Silver, platinum, and palladium higher. Copper lower.

S&P Outlook:
There is chatter of a 50bp hike. Makes sense from a standpoint of Janet trying to save face, or the Fed simply getting in front of the curve. It might also explain why treasuries haven't yet rallied.

If just a 25bp hike, perhaps treasuries and gold rally as the Fed lets the economy run hot.

Either way, equities will probably rally, lol. Futures suggest another high on the way, but momentum is slowing. So on Fed day, who knows.

Also the wave counts I'm seeing are becoming more and more suspect, specifically the way they label 2187.44.

As long as there are three-wave structures on pullbacks, there will be buys.

Waiting and watching for something unexpected now that the unexpected Trump rally has become the rally that will keep going forever and ever.

No comments:

Post a Comment