The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Thursday -- The Day After

S&P E-mini Futures:
Firm yet off best overnight levels.

Maybe the Tech Summit didn't overshadow the Fed as was thought, but Trump's fiscal plans surely did. Suddenly the Dove sounded Hawkish, and it flipped out the markets.

Takeaway may be that Fed is suddenly behind the curve. The problem could be if the markets sniff out that the Fed was bluffing the entire time. Let the markets confirm.

Let the electoral college confirm, too. It does not appear that a mass defection of Trump electors is priced in.

The Russian hacking story is the ultimate in Fake News put out by the Ministry Of Fake News, the government and those that would seek to globalize it by any means possible.

Elsewhere, according to the FT, Uber has been ordered by California's highways regulator to pull its self-driving cars off the roads of San Francisco while it obtains the required permit, less than a day after it began the pilot program.

USD ripped. EUR cracked its multi-year low at 1.04617. CHF & JPY weaker -- their risk correlation may be changing.

10-year yield broke through 2015 highs. 2013 3.03% could become next target. Above 2.75% is the pain threshold according to many on the Street.

Prices fell on heavy volume across the curve. They may bounce on lighter volume. If so, game on.

WTI crude extended its decline and looks more and more impulsive (one of the hardest instruments for Elliott waves).

NG's decline looking much less impulsive and could see bids return.

Gold and silver hammered lower, especially silver, off over 6%. Good news for slow accumulation of gold stocks which are showing relative strength per HUI/Gold ratio.

S&P Outlook:
The rat is in the kitchen. Yesterday blew the Fed's cover. Trump's fiscal plans appear to have made Yellen blink.

source: Zero Hedge
I'm not so sure if it's actually that. After bitching about "low inflation" since 2008, suddenly the Fed is worried about it getting too hot? Right after Yellen recently admitted she wanted to see the economy run hot? Doesn't add up.

Get ready for the Fed to crash the Trump party.

Probably why a lot of others blinked as the markets showed their hand.

Rally in danger
For now, it's just a sloppy decline that should have at least another high in store.

But after that, now that Yellen has hinted that the Fed is ready to unleash the Hawks on Trumponomics, the real ride may begin.

If for any reason 2087.44 fails before another new high, the ride may begin in earnest.

Gaming a new high first.

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