The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Wednesday -- Pre-Fed, Uber, Super Bowl

S&P E-mini Futures:
Choppy pre-Fed pullback.

All the excitement comes after 2pm when the Trump Tech Summit (and Trump's Twitter feed) vies with the Fed announcement and Yellen's press conference.

Until then, there's Uber.

They spy on their customers. They won't allow passengers to flirt or touch. And they just rolled out a fleet of self-driving cars in San Francisco with DMV approval.

Weird and getting weirder.

In advertising news, Frito-Lay, makers of Doritos, Cheetos, Fritos and Sun Chips, among other snacks, is the latest major longtime Super Bowl sponsor to pull out, joining GoDaddy and Toyota.

Football ratings declines have been in the news of late. Social mood wise, viewers probably won't turn up until the markets turn down appreciably.

Not until the markets get bloody will people return en masse to project their pain onto padded gladiators doing battle.

Pre-Fed toss up -- EUR stronger, USD weaker. Commodity currencies stronger. Both suggest Risk On, while stronger CHF & JPY suggest caution.

Prices at the long end looking more enthused than the short end pre-Fed.

WTI crude and NG pulling back in unison.

Gold and silver looking like they're trying to break above recent congestion. Platinum, palladium, and copper higher too.

S&P Outlook:
Still smelling a rat in this market. Still viewing 2187.44 as a level that probably should not be messed with for bulls. Still viewing the Fed as a problem for everyone. Still viewing the level of euphoria as a problem. Still thinking it's not time to stand in front of it.

A clear and convincing break along with a clear and convincing wave structure is needed to change this view. Until such time it feels better to work elsewhere, at the fringes.

Post-Fed, will be looking at TLT calls. Trimmed Brazil, longs in PBR, ITUB, VALE that were accumulated over the past year and a half. Working CCJ long term. Working VGZ and TGB short term.

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