The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, January 9, 2017

Monday -- Yuan Again, Fearless Smart Money, 37 Ticks

S&P E-mini Futures:
Choppy softness.

Yuan volatility is back to early-2016 chaos levels as the PBOC intervened again last night.

According to Christy Tan of National Australia Bank via Bloomberg, “The liquidity conditions have not normalized yet."

No wonder.

Interestingly, Bloomberg noted that "currencies, not bonds, have emerged as the preferred way for investors to express displeasure with political developments, because 'they are seen as less vulnerable to intervention.'"

Bit of a stretch (and a problem) when it comes to China.

Speaking of stretching, China is again warning the incoming US president that being nice to Taiwan is a no-no, this time via state-run Chinese tabloid Global Times, which according to Reuters, warned President-elect Trump that China would "take revenge" if he reneged on the one-China policy, just hours after Taiwan's president made a controversial stopover in Houston.

Southeast Asia could soon get messy.

Fearless is back. September Vogue was spot on yet again with Fantastic Fearless Fall -- I got the Fearless part but misread the Fantastic part.

Now the Smart Money is fearless.

Source: Marketwatch
Wondering if Marketwatch "gets" the irony of La La Land describing Smart Money.

Once again, the Dow missed 20,000, by just 37 ticks on Friday.

37 ticks!

Still thinking it eventually makes it, but not inspiring for under the hood strength. Needing too many rest periods and still coming up short.

Messy GBP on Hard Brexit concerns.

USD higher along with JPY and EUR. Weird.

Bitcoin down 6%. Using NYSE Bitcoin Index from here on. Want to see if it correlates with raw, speculative animal spirits, or simply a China stress proxy.

Still up with less volume than what they tanked with, but looking like higher prices remain achievable.

WTI crude and NG both taking hits. Crude not liking Iran's latest flagrant disregard for the latest OPEC agreement, as it sold from its offshore inventory above agreed levels.

Copper sitting out a rally in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.

S&P Outlook:
Very poor close Friday and a price & volume failure on cash and futures.

Great gaps at 2257.83 and 2238.83 with a volume shelf at the 2250 area.

Still thinking higher but will hold off on buys until or unless these areas get tested.

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