The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Tuesday -- Hollowed-Out Market, Aggressive Yoga

S&P E-mini Futures:
Recovering to flat line after overnight continuation of yesterday's decline.

A bad metaphor for a hollowed-out market lacking in solid foundation other than low rates and buybacks:

And here's yet another indication that social mood is ebullient:

"A new wave of aggressive yoga" reminds me of the craze for "hot yoga" back in 1999-2000, and is a close parallel, in my opinion, to the current coffee craze that has compelled Starbucks to launch its upscale Reserve Bars featuring $10 coffee.

$10 coffee is nothing but a shared mental state. It's called crazy.

Aggressive yoga is not yoga. It's aerobics.

Like its go-go '80s counterpart, it's more reflective of a bull market mood of bigger, better, faster that makes people feel they have to "keep up with" somehow, buying $10 super-premium coffees and ditching om for aggression.

Until we see evidence of a trend toward calming down to reflect a bear market mood retrenchment around the corner, the bull might have more to run.

Yet, as stated here previously, "with markets at record valuations (Goldman just reiterated that stock prices remain in the 99th percentile historically), pitching $10 coffee to 20-somethings is a great example of simply extrapolating present mood, which happens to be one of extreme ebullience."

Add aggressive yoga to the list.

Anything below 2083.79 could have bulls chanting om again.

USD stronger, GBP and EUR down. Commodity currencies weaker.

Already bailing on the NYSE Bitcoin Index which quotes too slowly.  Was up as high as 1.63% this morning per CoinDesk.

Again, want to track Bitcoin to see if it's a Risk On/Risk Off signal or just a China stress proxy.

Prices appear to be triangulating, a clue the rally may be ready for another pop higher before a reverse is possible.

WTI crude slight bounce while NG ripping, up over 3%.

Flip or flop. Today it's copper up big.

S&P Outlook:
Another poor close yesterday. The chance that the gaps at 2257.83 and 2238.83 and the volume shelf at the 2250 area are live targets is slowly rising, especially if 2264.06 is broken.

Still, there was little volume compared to the January 4th rally, and the decline still lacks an impulsive look.

The market is holding its cards close to the vest.

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