The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, March 3, 2017

Friday -- Boom Vs Noise, StayAwhile, SNAP, Monster, Retracements

S&P E-mini Futures:
Bouncing after an overnight continuation of yesterday's decline.

Social Mood:
Socionomics holds that Government is the ultimate trend follower. If so, Governor Jerry Brown is merely extrapolating the present.

Soon we might not need cars anymore. What happens when we don't need houses anymore?


Cars and homes are the two largest purchases most of us make. Disrupting both markets could be deflationary.

SNAP ripped 44% yesterday on its IPO. Looks like something snapped midway through the session.

Also, bull trends run on sugar & caffeine. Crack-in-a-can Monster Beverage (MNST) spiked 12.6% on better than expected revenues and sales growth, but the chart needs above 50.63 or else risk becoming an early indicator of a social mood peak.

Another warning from CHF & JPY. MXN ripping on positive trade deal comments. USD consolidating.

Prices continue to head lower. Volume is often suspect around rollover, but it doesn't appear out of the ordinary, thus hard to say how real the move is.

It does appear as if the Dec 2016 lows are in play, as 2s have taken them out (a trend toward potential inversion).

WTI crude trying to bounce along with NG.

Palladium is the Big Red today. Gold down slightly, but silver, platinum, and copper higher.

S&P Outlook:
Price is finally pulling back, but below 2371.54 might be cause for concern. Both the Nasdaq COMP and the Russell 2000 closed below the equivalent level already. So the more speculative markets may be telegraphing caution.

S&P 500 cash has two lower Fib extension targets of 2377.92 & 2371.32 after failing at a two-day 38% retracement.

There is also a volume shelf at the 2362-2364 area coinciding with 23.6% Fib support at 2369.41 (which this market has favored for much of the action from the 2016 lows).

That said, the decline is rather choppy and I'm looking to be a buyer. Any failure to reach 2377.92 this morning could be one such opportunity.

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