The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, March 2, 2017

Thursday -- Financialisation Of The Art Market, USD, SNAP

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down tiny after yesterday's huge up day.

Social Mood:
Much is being made of the recent sale of a Gauguin painting for 74% less than it was bought for.

Doubtful it's the "Art Bubble Bursting." Yet.

Rather, it's a one-off due to a lawsuit by the Gauguin's former owner against an art dealer in Monaco, claiming fraudulent misrepresentation of acquisition costs, and being overcharged by as much as $1 billion.

It does appear, however, that the art market is getting primed for a crack-up boom, though most likely not until after the equity markets crest.

As big banks continue to embrace the art market, expect the art market to emerge as an even more significant and visible, though possibly still lagging, indicator of social mood.

Meanwhile, peak positive mood continues to coalesce.

And the fallacy of financial news causality continues as well.

All that red in commodities?  The dollar is doing it. Love it. Although I still feel anything between 95.905-99.195 is fair game if needed.

AUD & NZD hammered, as if China has suddenly gone poof.

Not sure if the proposed ABC is over, but prices look like they've got the lows in mind at some point. I would be a buyer of new lows for a trade, however.

WTI crude fading and NG still in medium bounce mode.

The Big Four down across the board.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday was strong. Even up volume exploded. So did price -- right through the 2377.63 stop for the throwover which turned it into kind of a throw up.

Still, it was gratifying to have such a clear stop, and one that was stopped before wagering a dime.

I don't buy breakouts, but it was still good to see it run even with the small SPY put/long SSO position that remained. Dumped the puts, trimmed to SSO to pay for the loss, and sitting on the tag ends.

No volume support until the 2362-2364 area. Price closed just below a 2397.07 Fib extension. If back above 2400 before the weekend I may just go home flat.

If not, may add to the position if a choppy pullback should occur and a clear stop can be gamed.

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