The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Wednesday -- Fed Vs Trump Cage Match

S&P E-mini Futures:
Ripping higher.

Social Mood:
Looks like equities have taken their cue from Trump's speech last night, while bonds and the dollar side with the Fed.

NY Fed president Dudley, normally a dove, turned hawkish (ironically on CNN) and singlehandedly managed to bump the odds of a March rate hike last night from 54% to 80.

Make no mistake. It was a deliberate message by the Fed prior to the speech. It likely sets the stage going forward . . . for a grudge match. I'll take the dollar.

SNAP's IPO is due to price today, probably above its $14-16 per share offering.

Sadly, SNAP is in the news for a different reason today, which may or not turn out to be a metaphor for its life as a publicly-traded company:

Teen jumps to death in Snapchat stunt gone wrong

USD higher, breaking above two minor swing points. Needs to hold and continue.

CAD, GBP, EUR, NZD all notably weaker.

Bitcoin tops $1200. Up another 1%.

Prices sharply lower, yields higher.

WTI crude still hanging at highs, still eyeing 55. NG continuing its bounce higher from oversold.

Gold's inability to blast off from its break of 1250 may have hurt it. Silver and platinum down as well, while more industrial copper and palladium are higher.

S&P Outlook:
Remember that volume question: where is it, with equities at record highs?

Oh, here it is. What a difference a day makes:

This is why anything above 2371.54, preferably into the 2373.89-2379.39 Fib zone -- but not above 2377.63 with current labeling -- , will probably be on weaker up volume vs down volume, hence not enough bulls after bears just showed their conviction.

The way the chart is labeled, above 2377.63 would make "3" the shortest wave, which is a big no-no in Elliott Wave.

As for yesterday's wave count, it worked. But the big test is today. We could see a "throwover" of the upper trend line in Elliott terms then a sharp reversal.

If not, all bets off.



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