The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, April 7, 2017

Friday -- NFP Vs Syria

S&P E-mini Futures:
As if nothing even happened . . . until the NFP number.

Overnight chaos due to surprise air strikes on Syria.

Whether one agrees or disagrees with the air strikes themselves, it was very Michael Corelone for them to occur during a steak dinner with President Xi.

Safe havens went nuts, and an eerie calm has returned.

But the Ring Of Fire keeps smoking.

Source: USGS
Oh yeah, Non-Farm Payrolls. 98K new jobs, way below expectations. One would think that would bring the Fed Doves back to life, but ES futures didn't think so. Maybe later.

Mood is getting spacey lately, which is likely a warning.

Back in April of 2007, Henry Kravis said it was private equity’s golden age.

Here in April of 2017, Jeff Bezos sees a ‘Golden Age’ for entrepreneurs in space.

Then there's this:

(...and costs $9,000)

Mashable: "IT ONEOFF created the 'U.F.O.' rocking chair which stands for 'Unidentified Furniture Object'. It was inspired by the look of UFO flying saucers and can spin like one too. 'U.F.O.' also rocks back and forth. With an out of the world price of $9,000, we hope it's life changing."

Eerie calm here, too. Except for AUD, CAD, and GBP.

Weird to see topping tails already this morning, but they're there. If treasuries can't catch an air strike bid, yields may be in for a wild ride in the coming months and years.

WTI crude giving back the overnight spike. NG didn't really have much of one, and is down over 1% currently.

Gold got above 1264.90 and promptly sold off. Probably wouldn't want to see a daily close below it on lighter volume, which could easily happen today as Fridays are notoriously light.

Silver, platinum, and palladium are up as well. Copper is lower.

S&P Outlook:
Would've been great to get that overnight air strike volatility in the regular session. But it's never a good feeling trading on any kind of violent event.

Last two days were weird. There were more buyers at Wednesday's highs than sellers of Thursday's lows. Now that the overnight moves in ES and NQ have created what look like three-wave corrective structures, the odds of a rising wedge or a traingle in each index may be increasing.

That means anticipating that S&P 2322.25 and NDX 5316.02 will hold while simultaneously gaming a possible test of 2340 and 5380 areas. If lower prices do not occur, even better for this scenario.

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