The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, April 10, 2017

Monday -- Eurodollars, Yellen Tweeting, Consumer Debt, +/- Scenarios

S&P E-mini Futures:
Flat with upside bias.

Mixed in Asia, red across Europe as French election worries make headlines. Le Pen keeps gaining.

Friday was notable for a blowout in Eurodollar spreads after Dudley's latest comments which were interpreted as hawkish from the normally dovish NY Fed President. Trubs in the eurodollar market could cause the USD to rally sharply if they come to fruition.

More confusion could follow: Yellen speaking (and tweeting) at U. of Michigan today.

Geopolitics creeping in. Look for looming government shutdown to begin dominating headlines in addition to the usual Russian, Syrian, North Korean, Le Pen, Brexit stuff.

Meanwhile, mood is going strong regardless.

Consumer debt has crested $1 trillion for the first time. No fear there.

And, look what's headlining at Marketwatch -- Why the S&P 500 still has another 15% pop left this year

Another quiet day thus far. AUD weaker, CAD stronger.

Bitcoin back above 1200.

Friday turned out to be a high-volume reversal day. The bull case that prices will rally back to record highs from the recent lows is being weakened day by day.

WTI crude up over 1% as NG gives back more.

Gold and silver down along with larges declines in Platinum, palladium, and copper.

S&P Outlook:
Main reason for trying to envision higher prices from this current chop:

Seeing two different scenarios currently: a corrective pattern, or the first subwaves of an impulsive rally.

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