The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, April 21, 2017

Friday -- Private Equity's End Game, Plus The Moon, The Tides, The S&P, You & Me

S&P E-mini Futures:
Holding highs.

Quiet ahead of French elections. Asia slightly mixed, Europe mostly green, but France currently down a bit. Fresh terrorist attacks and pre-election jitters.

Markit reported that Eurozone PMI hit a 6 year high in April.

The beginning of the end game: Private Equity wants your savings.

Schwarzman’s ‘Dream’ Tested as Private Equity Eyes Your Nest Egg

PE wanted real estate too. In 2007. Sounds like their Golden Age again.

Service economy under stress as it buckles from within:

Starbucks Barista Has Meltdown Over Unicorn Frappuccino

Quiet here again. Skandies, CAD, GBP moving, weaker. JPY stronger.

Prices fell, but not on expanding volume. Keeps the dream alive.

WTI crude fumbling around 50. NG trying to hold gains.

Gold green, silver not. Platinum green, palladium and copper not.

S&P Outlook:

Source: G Samdani

Many Elliotticians are calling a completed contracting triangle yesterday. Not so sure about that.

"E" waves, per Elliott, often occur on "news." In the case of a bullish triangle, as soon as bulls see that the "news" has not plunged the market to new lows, buying ensues, and a reversal happens.

No such news happened. (Monitor Drudge Report for that. Widely-read, non-financial, quite possibly the best sociometer out there.)

My feeling is that "d" is still being formed, which could take up a few hours today. Option expiration can hold the market in place afterward too, leading to a flatish day. Then, some weekend news event (French elections, N. Korea, Trump tweet, etc.) could cause an "e" plunge on Monday or Tuesday close to Wednesday's new moon which could lead to a reversal.

The stop for this scenario is SPX 2328.95 and NDX 5353.59.

If prices get above 2378.36 and 5479.86 respectively, the pattern envisioned was likely completed (or wrong).

I refer moon skeptics to Sheer Lunacy staring at the Heavens, a study by the Royal Bank of Scotland using S&P 500 data back to 1928.

Moon trading outperformed the S&P as much as 2388%.

We are water beings living on a water planet. If the moon can control the ebb and flow of our magnificent oceans, it surely can affect the tides of men and women.

I often lose people on Twitter for mentioning such things. Far better to align ourselves with nature and try to learn from her.

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