The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, April 24, 2017

Monday -- Relief & Hope

S&P E-mini Futures:
Ripping over 1%.

Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron will face off in the French election on May 7th.

Shanghai Composite conspicuously absent the global rally. Down 1.37%.

Today's mood is relief & hope. Perhaps the "surprising disappointment" is over, but relief & hope are weak replacements that reek of euphoria.

BTW Marketwatch, futures have already ripped. S&P cash is set to rip.

Relief & hope: EUR soared as much as 2% during the French election result euphoria but has faded.

Incredibly, the USD held its 98.86 swing point by 5 ticks, and there is a very modest safe haven bid to CHF.

Relief & hope could give way to other emotions.

Hammered across the curve. Yields higher.

WTI crude and NG lower.

Crude's rising wedge remain intact however.

Gold, silver, platinum down. Copper and palladium higher.

S&P Outlook:
If appears that either the E-wave did indeed occur, or there is something else in play.

SPX 2378.36 looks set to break, and NDX reached new highs. It is the Dow Jones Industrials that may gum up the works.

Half-wondering if the NDX is forming an ending diagonal or a rising wedge of some sort.

Bottom line is I don't think it's going to be a straight line rip to new highs over the next few months as previously envisaged.

Maybe there could be some hi-jinks.

20,887.50 is the big number to exceed on the Dow.

My feeling is that perhaps the widespread feeling that some sort of large wave 3 completed at the March 1st high is incorrect but that one about to complete now. If correct, a larger, sharper pullback could be in store afterward.

Just a hunch for now.

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