The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, April 13, 2017

Thursday -- "Surprising Disappointment" Is Here, Along With Animal Spirits

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down in more chop.

Markets:
Asia mostly lower, Europe red.

Mood:
Tone is changing, as it should in a 4th-wave pullback, when social mood registers "surprising disappointment."

And it is:

"Fear Is Creeping Back Into Markets"

"With stocks near a record high, is a change of fortune just around the corner?"

"London Housing in Its Deepest Slump Since the Financial Crisis"

"Wells Fargo Tumbles To Lowest Since November After Buffett Dumps 9 Million Shares"

"The Next World War "Will Be Economic... Not Nuclear"

"Credit Suisse 'Fear' Gauge Nears Record High As Investors Give Up On Upside Hope"

"One Trader Can't Wait For This Week To Be Over"

"The Fed Is Communicating A Recession Is Imminent"

But under the surface, animal spirits are still lurking, and suggest that the wild ride is probably not over yet.

Dodge just released "the most powerful factory-produced muscle car ... ever."


Mentioned on Twitter yesterday that while the Dodge news was significant, we should see an even bigger "superyacht" signal soon. Well, it already happened:

Launched by L├╝rssen earlier this week, Project Thunder is the biggest superyacht of 2017 so far

Photo: Klaus Jordan, BoatInternational.com
Rumored to be 135 meters (442ft) long, perhaps we'll get a 500-footer this summer. Who knows.

And (((brag alert))) the New York Times just lifted one of my favorite descriptions of peaking social mood -- bigger, better, faster -- to describe the current lust for SUVs.


Mood is shifting beneath our feet as powerful positive mood forces morph into even more powerful negative mood forces as a Supercycle bull market transitions to Grand Supercycle bear market.

Mixed mood should therefore continue to intensify.

FX:
USD crushed yesterday against all major pairs on "strong dollar" comments. USD has yet to break its 98.86 swing point, however.

"The Mexican peso is 2017's strongest currency." Flagged here as far back as November 15th, 2016.

Bitcoin down over 1%, back below 1200.

Treasuries:
Volume continues to leak as prices head higher, with 2s still lagging.

Energy:
WTI crude higher and NG lower.

Metals:
Green.

S&P Outlook:
Not much much pre-holiday positive bias, but as long as SPX 2337.25 and NDX 5359.14 hold, I will try to position for higher prices.

Got stopped on XIV yesterday. Jumped back in for a few shekels then back out.

The onus is still on the bulls now for a rally above 2366.37 and 5442.71.

If things continue to fizzle, the next immediate targets beyond 2337.25 and 5359.14 are 2322.25 and 5316.02.

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