Monday -- China Roars Back (On Credit), Fear Rolls In (On TRIN)

S&P E-mini Futures:
Slightly higher.

Markets:
Asia was mixed, and Europe is mostly closed for Easter Monday.

Mood:
China Roars Back to Lift Global Outlook -- Bloomberg

Just one problem: the positive "global outlook" is fueled by a massive credit binge.

For the first quarter 2017, China's total social financing reached a new record high 6.93 trillion yuan -- equivalent to the size of Mexico's economy -- and well above last year's first quarter total. (per ZeroHedge)

Meanwhile, governments are increasingly in the crosshairs:

Protests sweeping South America show rising antigovernment anger

Perhaps China is trying to stay ahead of it, hence "social financing."

Too bad people always want more.

FX:
Tranquil yet again. USD weaker.

USDMXN getting to interesting levels.

Treasuries:
5s-30s have each cleared their February swing points (albeit on lighter volume) while 2s lag. Not a good macro picture.

Energy:
WTI crude and NG down in unison.

Metals:
Up in unison.

S&P Outlook:
Thursday's close was not encouraging, but certain technicals were.

Intraday TRIN closed at 2.47, showing a burst of fear, while VIX traded above then closed below its previous day's high.

"Surprising Disappointment" is still in play, so lower levels are certainly attainable, but I am looking for spots to get long.

For now SPX 2322.25 and NDX 5316.02 are hard stops for this stance.