The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, April 17, 2017

Monday -- China Roars Back (On Credit), Fear Rolls In (On TRIN)

S&P E-mini Futures:
Slightly higher.

Asia was mixed, and Europe is mostly closed for Easter Monday.

China Roars Back to Lift Global Outlook -- Bloomberg

Just one problem: the positive "global outlook" is fueled by a massive credit binge.

For the first quarter 2017, China's total social financing reached a new record high 6.93 trillion yuan -- equivalent to the size of Mexico's economy -- and well above last year's first quarter total. (per ZeroHedge)

Meanwhile, governments are increasingly in the crosshairs:

Protests sweeping South America show rising antigovernment anger

Perhaps China is trying to stay ahead of it, hence "social financing."

Too bad people always want more.

Tranquil yet again. USD weaker.

USDMXN getting to interesting levels.

5s-30s have each cleared their February swing points (albeit on lighter volume) while 2s lag. Not a good macro picture.

WTI crude and NG down in unison.

Up in unison.

S&P Outlook:
Thursday's close was not encouraging, but certain technicals were.

Intraday TRIN closed at 2.47, showing a burst of fear, while VIX traded above then closed below its previous day's high.

"Surprising Disappointment" is still in play, so lower levels are certainly attainable, but I am looking for spots to get long.

For now SPX 2322.25 and NDX 5316.02 are hard stops for this stance.

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