The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, May 26, 2017

Friday -- More "Different This Time", Pre-Holiday Bias, VIX June Swoon

S&P E-mini Futures:
Down in what appears to be a three-wave pullback. Thus corrective.

Markets:
Asia mixed, Europe mostly red.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have bounced after yesterday's roller coaster rides that saw historic highs couple with sharp intraday reversals of 20%. It could get wilder.

All in all, it would appear the new moon propensity for change struck again

Mood:
"It's different this time."

Source: Marketwatch.com

FX:
JPY bursting with strength. Might not be as good as it sounds.

GBP notably weaker on UK political concerns that the upcoming snap elections do not sound as favorable to PM May as previously thought.

Treasuries:
Slight bounce mode.

Energy:
WTI crude trying to bounce after a five-wave, 5% decline from 52. NG has gapped higher but looking a bit messy.

Metals:
Copper sitting out today's shiny rally.

S&P Outlook:
One would think pre-holiday positive bias would help the markets end the week on a high note, but they already feel a bit heady. Today could be a low volume day with many bugging out early, so am not placing a high degree of importance on price action up or down -- unless volume expands.

Breadth and internal volume metrics continue to erode.

Here are a couple potential counts:


Given the internals, am on guard for the first potential which is a sharp decline to the 2300 area.

If price can stay elevated, perhaps a shallow decline to 4 with another even weaker rally up to 5.

VIX is slowly setting up for a move. Note the contraction starting in its 2-standard deviation bands. This could suggest a June Swoon in equities.






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