The collision of global markets and social mood

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Monday -- Greece, Italy, The Honeymoon Period & A Yacht-Inspired Rolls-Royce

S&P E-mini Futures:
High-level consolidation amid choppy trade slightly lower.

Markets:
Mostly green last night in Asia. Mostly red today in Europe as Greece hinted it might skip a debt payment and Italy edges closer to early elections (which is causing a steady widening of Italian and German yield spreads).

On Bloomberg, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that at some point "the honeymoon period will come to an end" and Washington will need to deliver on the policy expectations that have driven the stock market higher.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams sees a “much smaller” Fed balance sheet in about five years at the end of an unwinding process that could start with a “baby step” later this year.

Fedspeak is getting more and more explicit.

Mood:
Mood is getting more and more ebullient.



True, it's a one-off at this point. But the fact that the unnamed, ultra-wealthy customer commissioned the project to echo luxury yachts of the 20s and 30s speaks volumes about where we're at on the mood curve. And it's feeling more and more like 1999 and 1929 all in one.

FX:
Another day of CHF & JPY strength.

Treasuries:
Rollover to September contract. Prices slightly higher on the day but down vs June.

Energy:
WTI crude as bounced in three waves thus far from its most recent decline and is currently down for the session. NG hammered nearly 4% lower.

Metals:
Palladium higher amid a red metals tape.

S&P Outlook:
Want to let things settle in after the long weekend. No sudden moves early on.

Choppy consolidation in E-minis leaves the door open to new highs. If so, the high might be sold if internals keep up their current weakness.

SPX 2400 and NDX 5720 would likely be levels that would be needed to fail in order to increase the chance of a considerable down move (actually, this morning's E-mini low of 2407.75 would be a warning shot).


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