The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, May 5, 2017

Friday -- NFP & The $1,150 Mood Ring

S&P E-mini Futures:
Modestly higher post-NFP.

April NFP +211,000 vs 190K expected.

Unemployment rate falls to 4.4%. Wage growth still under control.

March NFP was revised downward however, which could account for the action in treasuries, which are oddly higher, but MAY BE benefiting from safe haven flows regarding the mini crash in commodities of late.

Commodities concerned over Beijing’s efforts to reduce leverage in financial system. Easy enough solved, but not if China is finally imploding.

Asia red as a result. Europe mostly green. Sentiment toward Macron in France feeling as one-sided as the "stay" vote pre-Brexit.

Befitting of a social mood peak, the mood ring has gone upscale.

Leo Black Mood Ring


Nothing says peak positive mood like eleven-hundred and fiddy bucks for your favorite childhood toy.

Commodity FX got hammered but have stabilized.

NOK & NZD notably stronger.

Bitcoin up another 3%. Stress gauge theory gaining weight.

Currently bid after another day of weakness.

WTI crude cratered and there is chatter of a fund blow up, but prices are recovering.

NG higher too.

Bouncing from oversold, but gold, silver, and copper just turned red.

S&P Outlook:
Thinking the commodity/China carnage might be a little overdone.

VIX monthly seems to agree. VIX compression could last for a while, even with a couple mini spikes in between.

VIX weekly Keltner channels widening again . . .

And VIX 2-standard deviation bands on the daily chart are forming a "trap door."

All of this supports the thesis that mood is peaking and that momentum continue even as mood begins to transition from positive to negative.

Still thinking we're somewhere in a third wave of the larger fifth and final wave from the 2009 lows.

No comments:

Post a Comment