The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, May 8, 2017

Monday -- "Bubble? Pfft ... how about Dow 150,000?"

S&P E-mini Futures:
Sharp sell off from the Macron victory, but choppy.

Asia was mostly green on the heels of the Macron landslide, yet China conspicuously absent yet again. Europe red as "sell the news" kicks in.

FTSE 100 the lone green. Oh the irony.

A stunning amount of Fedspeak this week, as noted by Deutsche Bank:

Bullard and Mester today, Kashkari, Rosengren and Kaplan on Tuesday, Rosengren on Wednesday Dudley on Thursday and Evans and Harker on Friday. ECB President Draghi is also due to speak on Wednesday, while the BoJ minutes from the April meeting are also due Wednesday. BoE Governor Carney speaks after the BoE meeting.

Jawboning as policy.

Stratospheric positive mood. Financial advisor Ric Edelman sees the current rally lasting for decades. (He's pumping a new book.)

Bubble? Pfft ... how about Dow 150,000?

You Must Start Investing Now Because the Dow May Hit 100,000 By 2030

On the rally: "There’s no reason to think that won’t continue," he said.

No reason.

USD kicking ass.

Taking back much of Friday's USDCAD reversal.

Bitcoin tacking on another 1+% as China stress continues.

Prices may have been lame lately, but, so far, they've formed what look like three-wave corrective structures that could suggest a sharp rally soon.

Bigger picture, however, the rally might still be a great sell when concluded, as the move from the March lows is still likely a larger ABC bounce before a larger decline takes shape months from now.

WTI crude down and NG cratering.

Shiny metals higher. Copper lower.

S&P Outlook:
Went to a terrific party Saturday night and met a cool bunch of traders. One calmly told me that he thought we'd never again see the VIX spike "because algos have gotten so smart due to AI [artificial intelligence]."

This was a really smart guy who was as skeptical of the market's underpinnings as I, but was totally convinced that the VIX was dead money.

Here's why I disagreed:

An algo is only as good as its code.

There are simply not enough programmers on earth to write the trillions of line of code that it would take to equal the human brain.

100 Trillion Connections: New Efforts Probe and Map the Brain's Detailed Architecture

Ultimately, all code is binary, and while programmers are talented, neither is any match for the infinitely complex psychological events (and unintended consequences) of millions of traders interacting with each other during a market crash.

AI algos can learn to adapt? Maybe. But it's still bound by mere lines of code.

As shown last week, the VIX can stay low for longer. But it ain't broke.

As for the market, I'm cautious at these highs. Realizing they can extend a bit too. But looking for spots to sell.

No comments:

Post a Comment