The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, June 2, 2017

Friday -- Weak Jobs Mean More Fed?

S&P E-mini Futures:
Higher, though off best levels of new pre-market high.

Markets:
Green across Asia and Europe. Energy & metals getting slammed, but could be a buy setting up in oil.

Possibly the weak NFP has something to do with Wall Street's giddy feeling vs the reality in commodities:

138K new jobs vs 182K estimated and prior 211K.

Weak jobs mean more Fed -- the last thing we need.

Mood:
The latest tear-jerker from the press:

Puerto Rican Exodus Is Speeding the Island’s Economic Collapse

Fiscal mismanagement and corruption is speeding the collapse of the PR government while the US gets blamed.

Puerto Rico gets $6.5 billion in assistance from the US each year.

The power utility monopoly, broke. The water monopoly, broke. The pension system, broke. The highways, crumbling. The malls, filled.

"The population drop is astonishing."

The traffic is astonishing. The crowds at the mall are astonishing. The number of new restaurants is astonishing. The amount of lines for just about anything, even gasoline, is astonishing.

I've waited for an hour just to deposit a check at a bank.

Maybe the writers from Bloomberg and The New York Times could visit the island before they simply print what is handed to them by public relations firms.

Elsewhere, this story has a vague '80s feel to it:

Chinese Firm Buys 253-Year-Old French Crystal Maker Baccarat

Recall the Japanese practically bought half of NYC just before the Nikkei imploded. Will be interesting to watch how China behaves.

FX:
More USD weakness on NFP. More CHF & JPY strength for possible macro warning.

Treasuries:
Looking positive post-NFP.

Energy:
WTI crude slammed. Brent slammed. Gasoline slammed. Heating oil slammed. NG higher.

Metals:
Copper the lone ranger, lower. Shiny stuff green post-NFP.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday had a weird feel to it. It could have been the last gasp of some "b" wave sucker play or, based on several internals which were quite strong, it could have been a small wave 3 in a rising wedge that would have bearish consequences in a couple weeks or so.


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