The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Thursday -- Uber, Airbnb, Peak Passive Investing

S&P E-mini Futures:
At upper end of choppy holding pattern overnight.

Markets:
Asia and Europe mixed to mostly green. Rates higher around the world.

Mood:
Sadly this story was presented as a good thing:

Soon more people will be driving Ubers and renting out Airbnbs than working in finance

(Ironically, I just rented an Airbnb. While viewing a listing, the site kept telling me to "go ahead and book, you won't be charged." Weird. Then when I did book, the price magically jumped 25% and, yes, my card was charged immediately.

Launched in San Francisco, but now run in Dublin, Ireland. No phone number. Just a website. Doubtful I'll be using this company much more.)

Peak Passive Investing:

An Amazon engineer is letting thousands of Twitch users play the stock market with $50,000 of his own money

Hilarious quotes and tidbits:

"After the first day, I'm a lot more bullish than I already was" about the game, the engineer says.

"Players have chosen for him 'a reasonable, diversified portfolio' that includes hot tech stocks like AMD, Tesla, and Apple."

"He's really in it for the love of the game."

"If a lot of these [stocks] start crashing tomorrow, then things could get dicey," says the engineer.

FX:
USD strength. JPY weakness.

Treasuries:
Prices heard Fed's Powell loud and clear: the Fed wants to reduce its balance sheet by half. The good thing is it's not different than what has already been reported previously.

Energy:
WTI crude and NG rallying.

Metals:
Gold, silver, and platinum down, because who needs shiny metals when the Fed might cut its balance sheet. Copper and quasi-shiny, quasi-industrial palladium higher.

S&P Outlook:
Here's the way things looked right after the bell yesterday in the NDX:


Still think there is a possible flush in store down to around 5740-5750 in "4" before a zoom to "5." Then a bigger flush.

Both NDX and SPX closed at 78.6% retracements, which raised the odds of the above scenario.

There is no reason why a more complicated pattern such as a triangle can't materialize, but all it means to me is to keep my powder dry a bit longer.

Materially below 5740, especially on a closing basis would have me looking short.

Bought QQQ 141 puts at the close, just in case. Would not want to miss a trip to 5300.

Looking for above 2418.71 in SPX. Below 2400 probably negates this idea.

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