The collision of global markets and social mood

Monday, April 18, 2011

Surprise Surprise: The US Dollar

Amazing. Debt troubles resurface in Europe, and the dollar is up sharply in response. The dollar was ignored throughout the nuclear crisis in Japan and the Mid East crisis because they had nothing to do with credit.

Amazing. The dollar is up sharply this morning, and index futures are down sharply. Suddenly things have just gotten a lot clearer for me. I have not felt confident in reading the market of late. Perhaps this is starting to change.

The action in the VIX last week was alarming. It is telling me to stand aside and be extremely careful. Since I'm on the road for the next few days, this suits me just fine.

UPDATE: S&P just cut the US debt rating. The immediate reaction is dollar negative as you would expect. But if it affects interest rates, pushing them higher, the dollar could benefit.

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