The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Thursday Market Update -- Rejection, Rolls Royce, Apple

Greece requests a bailout extension. Germany rejects.

Rolls Royce announced plans to build an SUV. Great timing from a socionomic perspective: it is fitting that "The Rolls Royce of SUVs" will likely appear just as things start to get rough. It better be built like a tank.

FOMC minutes were probably the most confused ever. Who could imagine the words patience and premature in the same statement.

ES Futures:
Pop & fizzle.

S&P Outlook:
Not yet able to pull away from the 2098.43 61.8% Fib extension target. 2089.80 is an important level to maintain a rising wedge structure. Breaking it could see a test of the 2080 area.

The chart would still look better 40 to 60 points higher, however.

USD appears to be backing and filling in order to head still higher soon. The inverse appears true for the euro.

Treasuries are just as confused as everyone else, giving back gains from yesterday's pseudo-dovish Fed minutes. Regardless, if the Dec. 24th lows hold, new price highs could be forthcoming.

Crude looks awful if you see the -4% this morning, but it's backed into a nice spot in a rising wedge trend line. If it holds, it could rip higher. The more crucial level is $48.05.

Amazingly, a measured move is almost identical to the Fibonacci extension target at the $58 area.

Gold seems to have found something it liked in the Fed minutes, most probably the confusion, which may signal uncertainty, which gold seems to like.

Special Situations:
Apple. Yes. Apple.

Sure is a gorgeous chart
Also a gorgeous Elliott pattern 

The amazing thing is that as the fifth wave projects a high soon, Fibonacci does too. There are two multi-year Fib extension targets in close proximity to each other and the fifth wave projection.

The levels are 141.59 & 144.56.

So as gorgeous as Apple appears, here too things may be getting rough soon, possibly as it veers off from computers to cars. Maybe it should start with SUVs.

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