The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Thursday Market Update -- Rejection, Rolls Royce, Apple

News:
Greece requests a bailout extension. Germany rejects.

Rolls Royce announced plans to build an SUV. Great timing from a socionomic perspective: it is fitting that "The Rolls Royce of SUVs" will likely appear just as things start to get rough. It better be built like a tank.

FOMC minutes were probably the most confused ever. Who could imagine the words patience and premature in the same statement.

ES Futures:
Pop & fizzle.

S&P Outlook:
Not yet able to pull away from the 2098.43 61.8% Fib extension target. 2089.80 is an important level to maintain a rising wedge structure. Breaking it could see a test of the 2080 area.

The chart would still look better 40 to 60 points higher, however.

FX:
USD appears to be backing and filling in order to head still higher soon. The inverse appears true for the euro.

Bonds:
Treasuries are just as confused as everyone else, giving back gains from yesterday's pseudo-dovish Fed minutes. Regardless, if the Dec. 24th lows hold, new price highs could be forthcoming.

Energy:
Crude looks awful if you see the -4% this morning, but it's backed into a nice spot in a rising wedge trend line. If it holds, it could rip higher. The more crucial level is $48.05.

Amazingly, a measured move is almost identical to the Fibonacci extension target at the $58 area.

Metals:
Gold seems to have found something it liked in the Fed minutes, most probably the confusion, which may signal uncertainty, which gold seems to like.

Special Situations:
Apple. Yes. Apple.

Sure is a gorgeous chart
Also a gorgeous Elliott pattern 

The amazing thing is that as the fifth wave projects a high soon, Fibonacci does too. There are two multi-year Fib extension targets in close proximity to each other and the fifth wave projection.

The levels are 141.59 & 144.56.

So as gorgeous as Apple appears, here too things may be getting rough soon, possibly as it veers off from computers to cars. Maybe it should start with SUVs.

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