The collision of global markets and social mood

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Thursday Market Update -- Pantone, DAX, ABBA, Zeppelin

As expected, another non-event, agree-to-disagree, let's-meet-again meeting in Europe. Asia had a solid night. Europe is all green. DAX is ripping -- maybe Greece is toast after all and Germany won't have to shovel any more money at them.

Pantone's Fall colors came out. An article's headline read, "Pantone’s New Fall Colors Are a ’70s Dream Come True." Check out a chart of the Dow Jones Industrials in the 70s -- it was a cream come true for traders. And people still talk about the '74 bear market.

ES Futures:
A cease-fire in Ukraine spiked futures last night which then cratered on the reality of no deal out of the Eurogroup (or whatever reason), and then ramped back up to what appears to be a double top.

Scandinavian currencies are showing notable weakness, especially the Swedish Krona on the heels of yesterday's news of negative interest rates there for the first time ever. Time to head to the Land of ABBA.

Treasuries still showing weakness across the major durations (2s, 5s, 10s, 30s). Equities gloriously oblivious to this.

Crude up 2% from where it needed to bounce, and NG up another 1%.

Gold trying to rally but having second thoughts at the same time.

S&P Outlook:
If this scenario/chart is correct, why does the market feel so weak internally.

If "B" of "3" has concluded, the S&P should rip and internals should look great today.

If "B" of "3" has not happened yet, the S&P could fizzle today or tomorrow.

If the above chart is wrong, the S&P could soon stumble badly. With the earlier referenced Pantone article imploring us to "...crank the Led Zeppelin because Pantone’s fall color collection is taking us straight on back to the ’70s," bulls better hope the market isn't thinking When the Levee Breaks.

When the Levee Breaks by Led Zeppelin on Grooveshark

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