The collision of global markets and social mood

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Wednesday Market Update -- Letdown Possible At Big Eurogroup Meeting

Eurogroup meeting today at 10:30 EST to talk. Zzzzzzz.

Asia was mixed last night. Europe is decidedly red going into the meeting. However today feels like a non-event already.

Swedish bond yields went negative for the first time ever today.

ES Futures:
Shallow pullback thus far, echoing Europe.

Quiet. USD edging ever closer to breaking above 95.01, hitting 94.96 overnight. The sleeper rally continues to be in GBPAUD , which has been on a rip since 2013 and is a standout performer today. This is generally thought of as a Risk Off currency. Take a look at 2008 and you'll see why.

5s, 10s, and 30s may regain their footing today. Will be watching to see how much volume occurs if they do.

Crude still has bullish targets if 47.36 holds. NG ripped yesterday and is ripping today with fierce follow through. Juicy gap at 3.446 on the continuous contract.

Gold continues to languish, and doing so below 1239.

S&P Outlook:
Yesterday's rally was rather pathetic internally with A/Ds negative almost the entire day until they finally broke out and ended at a tepid 1.28:1. It felt like front running before today's Eurogroup meeting. More wishful thinking perhaps that could easily be dashed.

Once again the S&P got above the 78.6% level at 2069.44 and closed below it. So it knows it's there. There is a small volume shelf at the 2083 area that the market may have its eye on. Hard to tell. Not a buyer at current levels though.

An ideal set up, for me, would be a poke above 2072.40 and a failure with a decline back into the 2015-2020 area. I'd hit that.

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