The collision of global markets and social mood

Friday, February 13, 2015

Update For A Long Weekend -- Whatever We Can, JGBs, Treasuries, Gaps & Targets

News:
The words "We will do whatever we can" have just been uttered in Greece. They will likely carry as much weight as Draghi's catchphrase has. Sound nice but means absolutely nothing.

Away from the drama in Europe, there is something brewing in the Japanese bond market. 10yr JGB yields are rising after a bad 5yr auction. The yen noticed, strengthening rapidly (which is not good for Abenomic Land). The potential for sheer carnage here dwarfs that of the Eurozone by multiples.

ES Futures:
Modestly higher after a mostly uneventful evening.

FX:
Quiet but the yen merits attention.

Bonds:
Treasuries prices attempting to rally across the complex but doubtfully impressing anyone.

Energy:
Crude's rally continues, but it's in a tricky area. It needs to break decisively above 54.24 with volume if it is to have any chance at the 58 target.

Metals:
Gold remains below 1239 and has little shine to it there.

S&P Outlook:
It appears the market did what it had to when it had to -- price and internals came together forcefully yesterday. Doing so the S&P conformed to the ending diagonal scenario which assumes it is in wave "a" of "3." There should be a pullback for "b" but probably not before 2093.55 is exceeded.

There is a gap at 2090.57 that should at least be filled today. If it is, but the 93.55 high stands for the long weekend, only then would it feel like trouble brewing.

There is a 61.8% Fib extension target at 2098.43 and a 1:1 target at the 2133 area, one of a cluster of six. So it appears that the market is suggesting that higher targets are on tap.

The stop for this scenario is 2057.99.


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